Published 20 Apr 2026, 16:06 UTC · fetched 14 Oct 2026, 10:56 UTC
Ash Crypto
@AshCrypto
The next 48 hours are going to be crucial as the 2 week U.S.-Iran ceasefire is set to expire on Wednesday, April 22. Iran has just agreed to participate in the second round of negotiations with the US. The first negotiations failed due to Iran’s rejection of the final offer over its unwillingness to give up its nuclear ambitions. The U.S. continues its naval blockade of Iranian ports, while they remain closed. Trump warned that if no deal is reached with Iran by the ceasefire's expiration, the U.S. could resume military action, including bombing. If negotiations fail again: Oil will pump back to $105–$117/barrel. SP500 could drop by 3%. Bitcoin could drop back below $70k. Let’s hope for a permanent peace as a result of the second negotiations.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 76615.84 / 75382 − 1 = +1.64%d × r = -1.64% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrectOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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