Prediction evidence

crypto has been in a clear downtrend since october of 2025, it trades very cleanly momentum wise, last time eth failed to breakthrough key $4k res level it went to $1300 in one quarter, last uptrend rally was driven heavily by tom lee buying ~5% of eth supply, given the underperformance of these buys (currently down ~$7B) and underperformance of other crypto treasury companies, i believe its unlikely that we will see that kind of buying again, also during this rally from apr '25 lows crypto underperformed other risk assets substantially crypto generally does not currently have great narrative going for it because so much attention is going to ai stocks, from low caps to large caps, can see this with performance of stocks like SNDK (30x in past year & #1 performer ytd) or INTC (4x from recent lows) or NVDA/AMZN/GOOG near ATHs while coins still down ~70%, crypto benefitted in 2020-21 because we had defi revolution + nfts and it was first time a fuckton of capital came onchain, speculation was driven on future growth prospects instead of current user metrics which is not the case now i am exceedingly bullish on crypto as a foundational technology over the next few decades, and believe that stablecoins and open blockchains are and will continue to revolutionize the way that value is exchanged across the internet, just do not think that eth is a good way to bet on that happening, & believe that most success in crypto will come at the app layer instead, 5 crypto companies i am currently most bullish on are (hyperliquid, sphere, tether, whop, polymarket) for various reasons, also think paying attention to smaller startups that enable creative ways for people to speculate onchain will always be interesting for ethereum specifically, the rollup thesis has not played out successfully yet & its unclear direction top down leadership wants to take on it, megaeth is most interesting thing happening currently in eth eco & believe even in case they do exceptionally well that mega token will benefit more directly, competition from stripe+tempo on trad incumbents & stablecoin side, competition from hyperliquid on perps/finance/rwas, competition from solana as a more performant L1, much of eth's current mcap is because of its first mover advantage & lindyness - dont think that justifies its $300B mcap ta-wise its just at top of range, could reevaluate on sustained strength > 2400, but dont think it really trends up hard again unless breaks thru main local res at 2800-3000 not trying to be mean i genuinely dont think its a good buy at all