Published 12 May 2026, 15:30 UTC · fetched 20 Oct 2026, 08:29 UTC
CryptoBusy
@CryptoBusy
In reply to · 12 May 2026, 11:40 UTC · context given to the AI
Literally the funniest thing about 4-year cycle. Every every four years you get to hear that this time is different. Basically the cycle just can't work out like all past ones because *insert whatever main narrative is going on rn* Yet it didn't prevent 10/10 or BTC losing half its value. Mechanism is simple: a lie repeated thousand times becomes truth. Remember ETFs, M2 correlation chart, supercycle? Oppose it with facts & numbers and you deal with army of angry 20-follower experts who joined at 2025 top. Yeah all them get overused and crowded by the same people at key inflection points where confidence takes over from confirmation bias. At cycle highs and lows. So every 4 years. Which makes it a 4-year cycle and the uneducated crowd playing themselves over and over again. Until they run out of the money. And then cycle repeats. Thoughts?@crypto_birb Bounce coming!View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 78783.05 / 80298.11 − 1 = -1.89%d × r = -1.89% against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrectOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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