Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $80,640 at 12 May 2026, 23:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $79,397 at 13 May 2026, 23:00 UTC.
3. r = 79396.65 / 80639.99 − 1 = -1.54%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +1.54% against a neutral band of ±0.00% → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology