Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $76,863 at 22 May 2026, 17:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $75,359 at 23 May 2026, 17:00 UTC.
3. r = 75358.78 / 76863.01 − 1 = -1.96%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +1.96% against a neutral band of ±1.00% → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology