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Leaderboard / @Excellion / 2059784367145185316:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 27 May 2026, 23:50 UTC · fetched 20 Oct 2026, 05:27 UTC

Ex

Samson Mow

@Excellion

There are going to be a lot of people that will regret selling their Bitcoin here.

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $74,317 at 28 May 2026, 00:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $73,513 at 29 May 2026, 00:00 UTC.
r = 73512.55 / 74316.71 − 1 = -1.08%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -1.08% against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “There are going to be a lot of people that will regret selling their Bitcoin here.”
Confidence: 91%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

incorrect

Baseline price

$74,317

Evaluation price

$73,513

Move

-1.08%

Neutral threshold

±1.00%

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

20 Oct 2026, 14:56 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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