Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,991 at 28 May 2026, 10:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 4 hours horizon, $1,978 at 28 May 2026, 14:00 UTC.
3. r = 1978.02 / 1990.61 − 1 = -0.63%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +0.63% against a neutral band of ±0.51% → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology