Prediction evidence

Quoting · 20 Jun 2026, 13:10 UTC · context given to the AI

“Absolute power corrupts absolutely” In 2022, Strategy was completely different structurally than it is today. The debt was ~10% of its current size, converts years further out, and it was basically free to carry (~$40M/yr). The software cash flow could easily cover the payments and represented a much larger % of the actual debt - so the Bitcoin didn't have to be touched to service it. In 2022 - the option was practically free to hold. And there weren’t any other options for retail exposure until spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved in January of 2024. In 2025, Strategy completely shifted their strategy. They started issuing senior preferred shares like $STRC as their primary means of raising capital to buy more Bitcoin. They now owe $1.7B+/yr of dividend payments in perpetuity. They offered some of the best rates in the industry, promising a “cash-like” instrument with near risk free 11%+ APY. How? And where does the yield come from? Their plan is to issue more common (MSTR) shares using their ATM facility, and sell the Bitcoin they purchased with the money they borrowed to pay the people they borrowed from. “If you don’t know know where the yield comes from - you are the yield.” They also owe another $5.9B of convertible debt that they’ll need cash to fund over the course of the next two years. That + the dividend payments means a minimum of $10B+ of cash they need to find in less than two years that will fully be paid by MSTR shareholders and proceeds from selling Bitcoin. One of the issues with the size Saylor is flexing, is that today they hold 4.2% of the circulating supply vs 0.7% in 2022. They're a much larger structural risk to BTC itself if they actually need to sell a decent portion for cash, and their impact for selling with any real size is much larger. The size, the obligations, and the timeline are different this time around. Strategy tries to sell MSTR to retail as “amplified bitcoin” which is another fancy term for leverage. Leverage is great for making money if the asset you’re buying goes up - but it hurts you that much more on the way down. I believe in Bitcoin. If you’re reading this, you most likely do too. As Saylor quoted - “Bitcoin is an economic machine based on a truth machine poised to emerge as a freedom machine.” So if you’re bullish on Bitcoin and believe in the message Saylor preached in his video - don’t buy some company’s stock who’s using it to drive their Ponzi scheme, just buy Bitcoin. Don’t pay the bill for someone else’s greed. And remember there’s no such thing as free yield. No singular man or company will ever be the singular reason for its failure or its success. BTC is the freedom to escape the failure of countries and corporations who mismanage their balance sheet and debt. Not to fund them.

In reply to · 20 Jun 2026, 10:23 UTC · context given to the AI

When I gave this speech in October 2022, Bitcoin traded near $20,000, Strategy held 130,000 BTC worth about $2.6 billion, and $MSTR was ~$24 split-adjusted. Weeks later, after Bitcoin fell below $16,000, our debt exceeded the combined value of our BTC and cash reserves by ~$300 million, and $MSTR fell into the $13 range by year-end. We stayed focused, strengthened the company, and executed our strategy. Since then, Strategy has raised over $60 billion of additional capital and invested it in Bitcoin, adding more than 716,000 BTC. Today, our BTC and USD reserves exceed debt by ~$48 billion. Thank you to everyone who believed, endured, and took the long view.