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Leaderboard / @CryptoMichNL / 2068723614073999456:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 21 Jun 2026, 15:51 UTC · fetched 14 Oct 2026, 10:57 UTC

Cr

Michaël van de Poppe

@CryptoMichNL

Everybody wants to buy #Bitcoin now at $40,000-50,000. Just like everybody wanted to buy #Bitcoin at $60,000 when it was at $85,000. Just like everyone expects a certain level to happen, the chances of it to happen have decreased to zero percent. Overcrowded trades never happen.

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $64,144 at 21 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $64,765 at 22 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTC.
r = 64765.38 / 64143.99 − 1 = +0.97%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.97% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “Everybody wants to buy #Bitcoin now at $40,000-50,000.”
Confidence: 92%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

incorrect

Baseline price

$64,144

Evaluation price

$64,765

Move

+0.97%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

22 Oct 2026, 10:22 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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