Prediction evidence

In reply to · 21 Jun 2026, 18:21 UTC · context given to the AI

Saylor knows he's the only bid in the book, so he cannot stop buying or bitcoin will roll over and die, taking him with it But the market has sniffed out his weakness (see: STRC discount), i doubt he can raise long dated debt at rates which allow him to favorably cover his current obligations So if he can't sell BTC & he can't raise more debt, I guess he is doing the only thing he can do here: sell more MSTR to raise cash & keep bids in the bitcoin orderbook. if bitcoin can get back above his average cost ~$75k, he should have more options. except this is disastrous for the common shareholders. they get doubly diluted wrt corporate ownership and bitcoin per share. i really struggle to believe this will be allowed to go on forever but it's certainly gone on for longer than i imagined so who knows ^ The other problem with kicking-the-can down the road is that i really see no reason for Bitcoin to catch a bid until the saylor issue is meaningfully resolved: * Warsh just indicated rates might even go a step higher... do you want saylor's ponzi or good government yield? * Anthropic is literally selling cyber weapons through an API, do you think the AI trade is over? do you think it's gonna stop absorbing all public & private liquidity? * If you're worried about the end of the world and the infinite minting of fiat, just buy Nvidia and Gold, that barbell has done quite well. The real solution is to sell enough BTC or MSTR to retire essentially all the debt & preferreds. This at least removes the overhang of saylor selling from the market and opens the possibility of positive price action looking forward. It would be the death of strategy for sure, the only path forward would be converting to some type of trust like GBTC, but it would be an honorable death. I figure there's two reasons this isn't happening: 1. Hubris, saylor wouldn't be the first guy to lever up too much on wall street & to ride it to the bitter ugly end. hell it wouldn't even be his first rodeo 2. There's no buyers. He would sell all that Bitcoin if there were buyers at this level, but it turns out the bid is much much lower than we really think and he just can't stomach it