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Leaderboard / @rektcapital / 2069097147849408605:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 22 Jun 2026, 16:36 UTC · fetched 20 Oct 2026, 05:28 UTC

re

Rekt Capital

@rektcapital

#BTC If history repeats for Bitcoin, then the pattern may be as follows for next couple of months: June ends as a red month July could be green in response And August could therefore be red to cancel out July's upside completely $BTC #Bitcoin

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $64,641 at 22 Jun 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 30 days horizon, $66,205 at 22 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 66204.83 / 64641.09 − 1 = +2.42%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -2.42% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 30 days (stated in post)
Evidence span: “#BTC”
Confidence: 68%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status: incorrect

Baseline price

$64,641

Evaluation price

$66,205

Move

+2.42%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

21 Oct 2026, 13:11 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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