Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 23 Jun 2026, 20:39 UTC · fetched 20 Oct 2026, 05:26 UTC

Arthur Hayes

@CryptoHayes

Quoting · 23 Jun 2026, 16:42 UTC · context given to the AI

https://t.co/BhcKbfD0k7

The ticker is $CARDS degens. The thesis is solid. The price will be pamping! Yachtzee bitches 😘😘😘😘😘😘😘 https://t.co/yPeEOBHBus

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first $CARDS price at or after publication, $0.2912 at 23 Jun 2026, 21:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $0.2727 at 24 Jun 2026, 21:00 UTC.
r = 0.27273920589492023 / 0.291208775401325 − 1 = -6.34%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -6.34% against a neutral band of ±5.00% → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time