Prediction evidence

Is it possible? I mean I guess anything is technically possible. It’s it likely though? No, not at all imo. What typically precedes a secular bear is an equal and opposite reaction in the other direction- aka irrational greed, euphoria, etc which is visualized as a parabolic/blow off top on a chart. We haven’t got that on crypto yet, so it’s unlikely we have reached the stage where a secular bear market is likely. Also worth noting, LTHS (aka the amount of Bitcoin being HODL’d/accumulated has reached an all time high- probs somewhere around 80+% of all BTC in existence. Meaning when excess supply is constrained at the highest levels it has ever been, float is low, so when a bit of demand comes into the market prices will rise aggressively. A secular bear is more likely to occur when a large chunk of the 80+% of BTC that is being HODL’d by long term holders has been distributed to short term holders who lack conviction to hold during corrections (sending us lower than most would expect, for longer- aka secular bear).