Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 26 Jun 2026, 10:45 UTC · fetched 14 Oct 2026, 10:57 UTC

Michaël van de Poppe

@CryptoMichNL

I would assume we'll start to dive deeper getting closer to the US open. Why? $STRC is trading at $73 pre-market. A new low. We'll see what happens after the market opens, but I think that the price action on #Bitcoin will just repeat itself from the previous days: drop in the first hours, bounce back after that.

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $59,226 at 26 Jun 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 4 hours horizon, $59,500 at 26 Jun 2026, 15:00 UTC.
r = 59500.3 / 59226.29 − 1 = +0.46%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.46% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 4 hours (stated in post)
Evidence span: “We'll see what happens after the market opens, but I think that the price action on #Bitcoin will just repeat itself from the previous days: drop in the first hours, bounce back after that.”
Confidence: 69%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Prediction evidence

Source post

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AI interpretation

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