Loading…
Published 26 Jun 2026, 20:48 UTC · fetched 15 Oct 2026, 05:05 UTC
XO
@Trader_XO
Quoting · 6 Jun 2026, 14:19 UTC · context given to the AI
$BTC As someone who shorted 125 before a few days before 10/10 - having been extremely cautious for several weeks prior - and laid out my reasoning weeks in advance on public streams on YouTube... The recent surge in pessimism now that BTC is trading around 60k does not surprise me tbh. Some voices seem almost gleeful that their late bearish thesis has been “right” (what took you guys so long initially?) Though I suspect many never actually traded it. Armchair trading is comfortable when you have a large following with a mega subscription service...cool Putting the trade on is what matters and all I care about. For what it’s worth... the lower BTC goes... the more attractive it becomes from an asymmetric upside perspective. Much of the doom... I suspect... comes from those who held all the way down. For those in cash... opportunity is ahead... even if there may be a few more storms to weather ? Time capitulation ? Watch for signs of seller exhaustion... and perhaps the kind of jaw-dropping capitulation event many of us know all too well as far back as 2018... For me... it makes sense to start thinking ahead about buying levels... and execution strategy. I’ve never been interested in catching the exact bottom... nor am I a pure value investor... Having aggressively shorted the market down from the November 2021 highs... I wasn’t interested in catching the exact bottom, could argue I was rather too defensive at the lows (I was in the recession camp - lesson learnt - dont get too caught up in the macro... but we all get it wrong once in a while and learn from it. I may be slightly late again - hopefully not, but probably and I'm fine with that... just as I was in 2023 when I bought back in around 30k... despite having traded the 15k to 30k range for the best part of nine months and out performed btc during that period. The biggest gains come from upside trends... momentum, the meat of the move. Embrace the downside... if it continues.... thats future opportunity. And eventually... the next cycle begins...I’ve had my fun swing-shorting Bitcoin from the $125k highs into the $60k area across multiple trades and key inflection points (still have a position running from 81s), while offloading most of my spot around $116k How low does it go? I couldn’t really care. I’m not here to call the bottom, just as I never called the top, some of us prefer to trade it instead... one shot... nailed. The game now shifts from pressing aggressive shorts to identifying perceived value, chipping in gradually, and adding size only once momentum confirms over the next several quarters... A couple of metrics worth observing are realized price and the 300-400 weekly MA, along with the 12/25s weekly EMAs I often talk about. As a prospective buyer... embrace the downside... If it continues.... thats future opportunity... And eventually... the next cycle begins... Wishing you all a fab and blessed weekend...View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
unscored Awaiting manual review
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
Uses only text available at publication time
Think the interpretation or outcome is wrong? Sign in with X to request a correction, so reviewers know who is asking.
Sign in to request a correction