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Published 28 Jun 2026, 13:00 UTC · fetched 14 Oct 2026, 10:57 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
Quoting · 27 Jun 2026, 14:56 UTC · context given to the AI
$MSTR its current market capitalization is $29 billion. The $BTC they are holding: $51 billion. That's a discount of 43% of the stock compared to the underlying collateral. An absolute steal of a price. The sole reason that the markets are currently underpricing the underlying stock is due to the fact that Strategy has been diluting the stock. Now, the mNAV has also dropped <1 for the first time ever. When did we see that happen for the last time? Exactly, during the bottoming period in Q4 2022. I don't think Michael Saylor's Strategy will fall. Given that there's a snapshot date approaching on the 30th of June, I would assume we're close to the end. Other than that, markets move in extremes. The current discount of the stock itself is overstretched compared to the value and would mean that we're currently living in peak fear.My personal expectation on $STRC is that we're facing the first redemption day since the introduction of the bi-weekly dividend payments. That's on the 30th of June. Probably this window has been used to maximize gains on from a larger play (for instance Jane Street) to generate a return for themselves and therefore, price should bounce back swiftly. In my opinion, to avoid any of these cascades in the future, I'd suggest Saylor should introduce daily payments of the dividend, as the incentive to move the underlying asset into another direction to generate a higher yield will be decreased.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
unresolved Price missing or stale within toleranceNo price is estimated or interpolated. The outcome stays unresolved until a valid observation exists.
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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