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Leaderboard / @AltcoinSherpa / 2072844346018193863:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 3 Jul 2026, 00:46 UTC · fetched 20 Oct 2026, 05:25 UTC

Al

Altcoin Sherpa

@AltcoinSherpa

$BTC guessing we see a pullback at 1 of these levels, unsure which one. Big one is around 64k imo near the 200 EMA on the 4h. still expecting overall chop with a few good days / a few bad days https://t.co/HW2z5NbK8e

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $61,221 at 3 Jul 2026, 01:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $62,693 at 4 Jul 2026, 01:00 UTC.
r = 62693.36 / 61220.92 − 1 = +2.41%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -2.41% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC guessing we see a pullback at 1 of these levels, unsure which one.”
Confidence: 91%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

incorrect

Baseline price

$61,221

Evaluation price

$62,693

Move

+2.41%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

21 Oct 2026, 21:13 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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