Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 8 Jul 2026, 15:08 UTC · fetched 14 Oct 2026, 10:57 UTC

Michaël van de Poppe

@CryptoMichNL

Quoting · 8 Jul 2026, 14:17 UTC · context given to the AI

Trump: We will hit Iran again tonight.

I'm expecting to see: - $BTC's low of $61,000 to be tested. - Oil to run higher. - $NQ to drop further. This to happen, and then 1-2 days later; we're in talks again. And the markets reverse. It's the same with this man in Office. https://t.co/o2E21SvzwV

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $61,627 at 8 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $62,803 at 9 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTC.
r = 62802.97 / 61627.21 − 1 = +1.91%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -1.91% against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “- $BTC's low of $61,000 to be tested.”
Confidence: 99%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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