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Leaderboard / @CryptoTony__ / 2076979015026708547:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 14 Jul 2026, 10:36 UTC · fetched 20 Oct 2026, 05:26 UTC

Cr

Crypto Tony

@CryptoTony__

$BTC / $USD - Update Once we do lose those lows, my main pickup point for spot is $54,000 - $53,000. https://t.co/GrsoE6W7fy

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $62,726 at 14 Jul 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $64,606 at 15 Jul 2026, 11:00 UTC.
r = 64605.98 / 62725.6 − 1 = +3.00%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -3.00% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC / $USD - Update”
Confidence: 95%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status: incorrect

Baseline price

$62,726

Evaluation price

$64,606

Move

+3.00%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

22 Oct 2026, 04:18 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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