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Leaderboard / @CryptoMichNL / 2080561873213407707:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 24 Jul 2026, 07:53 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC

Cr

Michaël van de Poppe

@CryptoMichNL

#Bitcoin has dipped into the oversold territory on the Puell Multiple. The last times that we've hit those ranges, it formed the bottom shortly after. It's been the same on the bottom of 2015, 2018, 2020 and 2022. This time won't be different. https://t.co/HECfUf6VHO

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $65,456 at 24 Jul 2026, 08:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $63,941 at 25 Jul 2026, 08:00 UTC.
r = 63941.41 / 65456.41 − 1 = -2.31%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -2.31% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “#Bitcoin has dipped into the oversold territory on the Puell Multiple.”
Confidence: 98%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

incorrect

Baseline price

$65,456

Evaluation price

$63,941

Move

-2.31%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

21 Oct 2026, 23:14 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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