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Leaderboard / @CryptoTony__ / 2080575966154530991:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 24 Jul 2026, 08:49 UTC · fetched 19 Oct 2026, 13:37 UTC

Cr

Crypto Tony

@CryptoTony__

$BTC - Macro Update I have mentioned the $53,000 level for awhile now, which i want to see tested. Basically any larger dip we see from here i will start to ladder up on https://t.co/DriQppwtFW

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $65,255 at 24 Jul 2026, 09:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $63,809 at 25 Jul 2026, 09:00 UTC.
r = 63808.55 / 65255.44 − 1 = -2.22%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -2.22% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC - Macro Update”
Confidence: 69%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status: incorrect

Baseline price

$65,255

Evaluation price

$63,809

Move

-2.22%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

22 Oct 2026, 01:16 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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