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Leaderboard / @CryptoMichNL / 2081798521779601551:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 27 Jul 2026, 17:47 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC

Cr

Michaël van de Poppe

@CryptoMichNL

You don't need to see more charts apart from this one on #Bitcoin capitulation. We've hit #Bitcoin capitulation as it's been just as worse as in 2022. The inverse of that statement: 2022 was the best period to buy Bitcoin. Just like it is right now. https://t.co/kHyDoxLGVH

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $64,951 at 27 Jul 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $63,619 at 28 Jul 2026, 18:00 UTC.
r = 63619.47 / 64951.08 − 1 = -2.05%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -2.05% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “You don't need to see more charts apart from this one on #Bitcoin capitulation.”
Confidence: 98%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

incorrect

Baseline price

$64,951

Evaluation price

$63,619

Move

-2.05%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

21 Oct 2026, 23:14 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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