Prediction evidence

Quoting · 27 May 2026, 20:30 UTC · context given to the AI

#Bitcoin / $BTC This question challenged me to think critically about what else is a "bear case". Outside of what I listed, the biggest one left on the table is cyclical performance. The last 3 bull market peaks occurred ~536 days post their respective BTC halvings. All within 13 days of that number. On the same note, the last 2 bear market bottoms occurred ~908 days post halving, both numbers within a few weeks of that number. Which brings us to where we are now, ~769 days post halving... it's a small data set to go off of, and there are plenty of other external factors that affect each cycle differently - but I still would see it as a decent counter-argument to any *short term* bullish bias I have. We're still ~4.5 months out from what would be the bottom if we were to continue to follow what's been a consistent trend (e.g. bottom in October 2026). Fwiw - if you look at the four month average price of BTC on either side of those bottoms, they were all incredible opportunities to stack more Bitcoin. So like I also said in the interview - now isn't when you want to sit back and trade leverage because you're bored. Instead, leverage your boredom and spend that time to build something great. I'd love to see a bounce at $70K like I've shared over the last several weeks - but I'm fully prepared to use any extra time the market gives me to keep working harder and stack more. Be more bullish.