Published 28 Jul 2026, 19:44 UTC · fetched 19 Oct 2026, 13:39 UTC
Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
Quoting · 28 Jul 2026, 17:22 UTC · context given to the AI
https://t.co/wWBITHb76AIn reply to · 28 Jul 2026, 19:43 UTC · context given to the AI
I try to see everything through the bigger picture. When every screen is red, the most useful thing I do is close the laptop and go for a walk in nature. It's how I hold my conviction when everything in me wants to panic. And I'll be honest with you, because pretending otherwise would be insulting. Crypto is painful right now. It is not the gift that keeps on giving that it once was, and all of us in it are feeling poorer and feeling like shit. I feel it too. But feeling bad and being wrong are not the same thing. Nothing in the actual mechanism has broken. The business cycle has already turned. Liquidity says crypto is running cold, not dead. And I still believe, deeply, that layer 1s are the place to be... Ethereum, Solana, Sui. I sat down and wrote my full thinking out today. My up to date thesis on crypto right now, why I'm still here, and where I think the real money gets made from here.If you want the full version of where my head is at, it’s all here: https://t.co/XlamGJSU77View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 72.68 / 74.24 − 1 = -2.10%d × r = -2.10% against a neutral band of ±1.50% → incorrectOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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