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Leaderboard / @CryptoTony__ / 2082405521408319833:ethereum

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 29 Jul 2026, 09:59 UTC · fetched 19 Oct 2026, 13:37 UTC

Cr

Crypto Tony

@CryptoTony__

FOMC THOUGHTS So we have the FOMC today, which will give the next direction for the next few weeks. If the FED come across less fearful, then we will be seeing DXY dump here at resistance. This will open up the longs on $BTC $ETH $GOLD $SILVER .. And risk on assets. https://t.co/xc3cJAkRUw

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,920 at 29 Jul 2026, 10:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 7 days horizon, $1,870 at 5 Aug 2026, 10:00 UTC.
r = 1870.33 / 1920.09 − 1 = -2.59%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -2.59% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 7 days (stated in post)
Evidence span: “This will open up the longs on $BTC $ETH $GOLD $SILVER ..”
Confidence: 69%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

incorrect

Baseline price

$1,920

Evaluation price

$1,870

Move

-2.59%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

21 Oct 2026, 23:14 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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