Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,874 at 2 Aug 2026, 08:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $1,842 at 3 Aug 2026, 08:00 UTC.
3. r = 1841.6 / 1874.1 − 1 = -1.73%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +1.73% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology