Prediction evidence

$PUMP: Still looks good on the lower time frames but I wanted to talk a bit about the higher time frames- on 1 hand, I think pump is still a great business with lots of 'revenue' (probably a lot of it is fake), a big warchest, and great PMF. It's also got a team that is smart and willing to pivot to new ideas (cross chain, streaming, social, etc). On the other hand, there are unlocks, and unlocks are going to probably push down any future pushes. Now, you can argue that the VCs are simply waiting for bullish conditions to unload their bags and that's totally reasonable. But still, the overhang is a reason why you will always be a bit worried imo. I think about some of the older coins that launched in the bear market (thinking 2023) and then started to unlock in 2024. Coins like ARB are a good example- while the ARB token itself is useless, I still think that the perception back then was quite a bit different and arb is still one of the few chains/L2s that has some traction still today. But I just remember ARB pretty much underperforming everything when the bull market really hit in 2024 and I think it's because of VC unlocks (the counter to this is SUI, which had a decent run). So, great fundamentals + revenue + buying tokens vs. token unlocks. Usually the latter ALWAYS wins this and the buybacks can never overcome the selling...but the timing is always the tricky part about any trade. Do I think that pump is going to be higher than todays prices when the bull market hits? Probably Am I scared as hell about these VCs who have their tokens? Definitely