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Leaderboard / @CryptoMichNL / 2084266785868550300:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 3 Aug 2026, 13:15 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC

Cr

Michaël van de Poppe

@CryptoMichNL

There we go. Dump on Monday morning on the markets, and now a consolidation. I'd expect #Bitcoin and the markets to turn back upwards from here in the coming days. https://t.co/TyPZsKHjxN

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $63,267 at 3 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 7 days horizon, $64,495 at 10 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC.
r = 64494.74 / 63267.2 − 1 = +1.94%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +1.94% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 7 days (stated in post)
Evidence span: “I'd expect #Bitcoin and the markets to turn back upwards from here in the coming days.”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

correct

Baseline price

$63,267

Evaluation price

$64,495

Move

+1.94%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

21 Oct 2026, 21:13 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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