Prediction evidence

In reply to · 3 Aug 2026, 14:10 UTC · context given to the AI

My honest thoughts on $MSTR going forward: 1/ The original mistake, imo: Strategy spent ~$1.38B of cash to retire $1.5B of the 0% converts due 2029. That was ~61% of the cash buffer, and it left the treasury thin right as it had to keep servicing a 12% dividend on $STRC. 2/ Meanwhile the ~$2B of STRC issued that same window went into 24,869 BTC at roughly $84k. BTC is now ~$62k. "Buy the top, sell the bottom" — half right. Management says sales are executed at cost basis to avoid realizing gains, so it isn't literally those coins. But it looks bad, and it broke the "never sell" mantra Saylor built for years. 3/ The damage: BTC ~$62k, MSTR from ~$180 in May to ~$93, STRC to a $71.25 low in June. Bankruptcy calls everywhere. I never thought that was the base case, and I still don't. Then the plan changed. What I think he's gotten right since: 4/ He sold BTC repeatedly — $218M YTD through Jul 26, another ~$105M last week — with no measurable impact on the BTC price. That matters more than people credit. It demonstrated to TradFi that an 842k-BTC holder can exit size without breaking the market. That's a reserve-asset argument, not a bearish one. 5/ STRC is being actively repaired: $1B buyback authorized, 912,143 shares repurchased for $81.2M last week, dividend held at 12%. $71.25 → ~$90. Still ~10% below par though, and the ratchet only moves one way. That's the part I'm actually watching. 6/ Common shareholders paid for most of this. $290.6M of MSTR sold last week alone — the dilution, not just the BTC sales, is what's funding the repair. As a holder at a much higher basis it feels bad. I understand the logic. Understanding it doesn't make it painless, and a lot of people have lost trust here but you can`t expect future gains without a good amount of pain in the meantime. 7/ $4.0B USD reserve now, over two years of dividend and interest coverage. That is a materially different balance sheet than June and imho is what stablized the MSTR ship. 8/ My view: the liquidity emergency is behind them. I'd expect BTC sales to slow and accumulation to resume. Still long $MSTR. Hopeful on both $BTC and @Strategy from here but I do want to say a friendly "F. U. Saylor" for the hard nights you made us and also "thank you Saylor" in advance for the future profits 😂 NFA. DYOR.