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Leaderboard / @CryptoTony__ / 2085817503851401348:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 7 Aug 2026, 19:57 UTC · fetched 19 Oct 2026, 13:37 UTC

Cr

Crypto Tony

@CryptoTony__

$USDT Dominance - Update Still looking for something like this to play out this weekend so i do lean towards a bearish Bitcoin / Crypto. No doubt Trump will have a part to play in this. https://t.co/bAsgu4Z529

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $64,915 at 7 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 7 days horizon, $62,893 at 14 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC.
r = 62893.08 / 64914.8 − 1 = -3.11%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +3.11% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 7 days (stated in post)
Evidence span: “Still looking for something like this to play out this weekend so i do lean towards a bearish Bitcoin / Crypto.”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

correct

Baseline price

$64,915

Evaluation price

$62,893

Move

-3.11%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

21 Oct 2026, 21:13 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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