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Leaderboard / @CryptoMichNL / 2085833742392737951:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 7 Aug 2026, 21:01 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC

Cr

Michaël van de Poppe

@CryptoMichNL

Extremely boring price action on #Bitcoin. Despite the small drop today, it's still at $65,000. If this continues to happen, we're likely going to see the breakout later this month. Boring summer remains. https://t.co/yqLWNojsJ4

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $64,896 at 7 Aug 2026, 22:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 30 days horizon, $79,945 at 6 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC.
r = 79945.16 / 64895.74 − 1 = +23.19%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +23.19% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 30 days (stated in post)
Evidence span: “Extremely boring price action on #Bitcoin.”
Confidence: 75%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

correct

Baseline price

$64,896

Evaluation price

$79,945

Move

+23.19%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

21 Oct 2026, 20:13 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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