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Published 11 Aug 2026, 11:56 UTC · fetched 19 Oct 2026, 13:39 UTC
PlanB
@100trillionUSD
In reply to · 11 Aug 2026, 11:55 UTC · context given to the AI
7) Asymmetric risk/reward is the real portfolio edge. Bitcoin has been the best-performing major asset on both absolute and risk-adjusted (Sharpe/Sortino/Calmar) bases over multi-year periods. Even a small 1% allocation mixed with cash/traditional assets historically improved outcomes via upside convexity.8) Different models (S2F/S2FX, power-law, lengthening cycles, diminishing returns) often converge on substantially higher long-term prices. They diverge on timing of peaks, cycle length, and how fast returns diminish. Time + data will sort them.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 64179.67 / 64327.18 − 1 = -0.23%d × r = -0.23% against a neutral band of ±1.00% → neutralOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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