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Leaderboard / @AltcoinSherpa / 2088613959704158315:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 15 Aug 2026, 13:09 UTC · fetched 19 Oct 2026, 13:39 UTC

Al

Altcoin Sherpa

@AltcoinSherpa

$BTC this area is still the line in the sand imo, lose 62k and we go to the high 50ks pretty quick. Still extremely choppy though https://t.co/TDLI5mg4tP

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $62,986 at 15 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $62,994 at 16 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC.
r = 62993.64 / 62985.97 − 1 = +0.01%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.01% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC this area is still the line in the sand imo, lose 62k and we go to the high 50ks pretty quick.”
Confidence: 86%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

incorrect

Baseline price

$62,986

Evaluation price

$62,994

Move

+0.01%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

21 Oct 2026, 15:11 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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