Prediction evidence

In reply to · 19 Aug 2026, 17:40 UTC · context given to the AI

Why do I still think that the market will nuke soon? What is the main thing that makes $BTC or any asset go down in price? lack of demand. That's exactly why $BTC has been going down since the 126k top. Plain and simple, regardless of whether you attribute it to reason A or B, the underlying factor is that there simply isn't enough demand at those prices. That's been the case from that level all the way until now. We're currently at 68k, and the situation is exactly the same as it was at the top. There isn't enough demand to push price higher. There are several different forms of demand, but the foundation of all of them is spot bid. Spot bid has been weak for weeks and months. It's true that every now and then we get rotations that cause one asset to see more interest than another for a week or so, but an isolated week like that doesn't change the direction of an asset that has been lacking demand for weeks and months. What actually changes the trend is sustained demand over time. So far that's not happening in $BTC or any of our coins. What we're seeing is simply the same thing we've been seeing for the past few weeks, perp games. As I've mentioned over the past few weeks, $BTC spot bid remains weak. Price has tried to move lower several times but what has been holding it up has been perp longs. Every time price was about to drop, perp traders would open longs and manage to save certain critical levels. In the short term, that's good for bulls because they're defending those levels, but in the long term it creates exactly what we're seeing now. Open interest is currently at levels higher than it was on 10/10. And this is happening without the level of interest $BTC had at that time, while we're also in a worse macro environment than we were back then. When the main support for $BTC comes from perps, it creates a glass floor. And yes, price can keep going higher with that glass floor supporting it. It can continue to be pushed higher, but eventually that floor breaks. When it does, the downside move can be extremely violent. That's one of the reasons why I don't think the market is changing phases or preparing for a rally. I think it's simply playing ping-pong because of perps, within a bear market. Does my thesis have an invalidation? Yes. It would be a genuine spot bid coming in while OI resets to more sustainable levels. If OI becomes sustainable or gradually resets without huge rollercoasters while price continues moving higher, that would invalidate my thesis and make me close my trades at a loss. But no, $BTC being pushed higher solely by perps does not invalidate my shorts. When your target is 50k, it doesn't really matter that much whether you open the short at 63k, 65k or 69k. And as a reminder, I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything, nor do I need anyone to "validate" my ideas. I'm simply sharing them, just as I share some of the ideas and observations that lead me to these conclusions. If you were long and made money on this move, or on whatever comes next, GG. Having a counterparty is what makes a market, so well played. GL