Skip to content

Home Arena Leaderboard Token sale

Loading…

Public calls. Verifiable outcomes.

Methodology Docs Privacy Terms & risk X ↗

Methodology Claim profile

Published scoresSign in with X

Leaderboard / @Excellion / 2090221337818325386:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 19 Aug 2026, 23:36 UTC · fetched 19 Oct 2026, 13:39 UTC

Ex

Samson Mow

@Excellion

The fiat system is failing. Their only job is to convince you everything is fine. It’s not. It can’t be fixed. By the time everyone sees it and buys Bitcoin, BTC will be insanely expensive. Buy bitcoin:native today.

View original on X ↗

How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $69,300 at 20 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $73,011 at 21 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC.
r = 73010.86 / 69300.01 − 1 = +5.35%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +5.35% against a neutral band of ±1.00% → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “By the time everyone sees it and buys Bitcoin, BTC will be insanely expensive.”
Confidence: 82%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

correct

Baseline price

$69,300

Evaluation price

$73,011

Move

+5.35%

Neutral threshold

±1.00%

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

20 Oct 2026, 14:56 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

Request a correction

Think the interpretation or outcome is wrong? Sign in with X to request a correction, so reviewers know who is asking.

Sign in to request a correction