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Published 25 Aug 2026, 18:18 UTC · fetched 19 Oct 2026, 13:39 UTC
PlanB
@100trillionUSD
Quoting · 1 Feb 2026, 11:15 UTC · context given to the AI
Bitcoin closed January at $78,635 (-38% from ath) 200 Week Moving Average $58k Realized Price $55k, decreasing RSI dropped below 50, blue: official bear territory Historically BTC could drop to 200WMA/RP levels However bull has been weak (no red) so bear might be shallow https://t.co/Mxps9J5wLBIn reply to · 25 Aug 2026, 18:08 UTC · context given to the AI
@100trillionUSD Thoughts on reaching the realized price 'theory', PlanB? Maybe it's just another random indicator that's different this cycle... It's all just theory in the end; Bitcoin doesn't care about our theories and indicators.@bitharington Indeed, btc did not go below realized price this bear. I was wrong because I thought it would, based on last 3 bear markets. So IMO bitcoin now tracks a scenario that we discussed before: "bull has been weak so bear might be shallow" https://t.co/2fDKk3AwLxView original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
unscored Awaiting manual review
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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