Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first $CATE price at or after publication, $0.06115 at 27 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $0.04654 at 28 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC.
3. r = 0.046538889631770844 / 0.06114608844654461 − 1 = -23.89%
4. Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -23.89% against a neutral band of ±5.00% → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology