Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first $ARB price at or after publication, $0.1329 at 4 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $0.1486 at 5 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC.
3. r = 0.148602102317483 / 0.132918562380484 − 1 = +11.80%
4. Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +11.80% against a neutral band of ±5.00% → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology