Prediction evidence

In reply to · 19 Sept 2026, 22:38 UTC · context given to the AI

I can understand the argument that a large refinancing cycle eventually forces more accommodation, but wouldn’t the catalyst that actually forces that accommodation likely be some combination of recession, credit stress or Treasury market dysfunction? And if so, why should we assume the first phase is liquidity creation rather than liquidity destruction as collateral gets hoarded, dealer balance sheets tighten, the dollar firms and leverage comes out of the system? That’s where I’m struggling with using BTC’s relative strength as confirmation that the liquidity phase has already begun. Bitcoin is also one of the most liquid 24/7 assets available, which makes it exactly the kind of thing that can get sold when investors need cash quickly. Couldn’t the same event that ultimately becomes very bullish for BTC through the policy response initially be violently bearish because BTC gets liquidated before the Fed or Treasury is forced to respond? So what specifically in today’s market plumbing makes you believe the accommodation phase arrives before the deleveraging phase rather than after it? And if BTC does get hit first while the longer term liquidity thesis remains intact, wouldn’t others logically experience an even more severe version of that same liquidation before the eventual reflation?