Prediction evidence

The S&P 500 is sitting near record highs. But the internals are weak. As of Wednesday, 257 of the 500 stocks in the index were trading below their 200-day moving averages. That’s more than half the index underwater on a widely watched long-term momentum measure. Breadth is bearish. Now look at crypto. Of the top 100 tokens by market cap, 88, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, are trading above their 200-day SMAs. Most of those same coins are also holding above their 50-day and 100-day averages. That’s a clean, bullish configuration across the board. And here’s the part that stands out: $BTC, $ETH, $XRP, $SOL and the majority of the rest are still well below their all-time highs. They look relatively inexpensive compared with equities that are already pricing in a lot of good news. Weak breadth in stocks near highs has historically been a yellow flag. Strong breadth in crypto while prices remain far from peaks is the opposite setup. The data doesn’t lie.