Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 26 Sept 2026, 09:02 UTC · fetched 19 Oct 2026, 13:37 UTC

Crypto Tony

@CryptoTony__

In reply to · 26 Sept 2026, 08:59 UTC · context given to the AI

@CryptoTony__ So this in context to the shift in USDT (stables) dominance that you have mentioned?

@mrsmith131938 Correct i expect a big bounce on that soon which would plummet bitcoin and crypto short term

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $84,013 at 26 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $84,942 at 27 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC.
r = 84942.04 / 84012.96 − 1 = +1.11%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -1.11% against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “@mrsmith131938 Correct i expect a big bounce on that soon which would plummet bitcoin and crypto short term”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3