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Leaderboard / @notthreadguy / 2108189953905635365:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

neutralPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 8 Oct 2026, 13:37 UTC · fetched 20 Oct 2026, 08:28 UTC

no

threadguy

@notthreadguy

i feel like if they're going to really kill bitcoin today is the day

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $82,114 at 8 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $82,554 at 9 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC.
r = 82553.5 / 82114.1 − 1 = +0.54%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.54% against a neutral band of ±1.00% → neutral

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (stated in post)
Evidence span: “i feel like if they're going to really kill bitcoin today is the day”
Confidence: 80%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

neutral

Baseline price

$82,114

Evaluation price

$82,554

Move

+0.54%

Neutral threshold

±1.00%

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

20 Oct 2026, 14:56 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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