Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $83,338 at 13 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $81,545 at 14 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC.
3. r = 81545.28 / 83337.53 − 1 = -2.15%
4. Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -2.15% against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology