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@100trillionUSD · All models are wrong, some are useful. DYOR! 👉 https://t.co/4UQOQ8eRA3
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
—
Low sample: 12 more calls to rank
Scored calls
3
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
0.0%
0 correct / 1 incorrect · 2 neutral
Avg 1h return / call
-0.22%
Avg return per call (1 hour horizon)
Following every call
-0.7%
Equal stake on all 3 calls resolved in the last 30 days
Mean alpha
-0.23%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (25) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 33% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 0.0% | 10 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −0.7% | 54 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -0.23% | 35 | 25% |
By month resolved · 1 hour horizon
5 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“$85k bitcoin .. clear skies ahead Interactive chart and data (100% free): https://t.co/H7ICfIauUt https://t.co/clFYH09gXq https://t.co/3vT6l5i2MO”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 40.0% |
8 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.55 | 19 | 25% |
30 days · 1h
“@Dirindin533 @BlockHorizonIO Bitcoin is indeed far off any model right now (e.g. also far below powerlaw). IMO it does not mean all these models are "broken" or "not working", it does mean that bitcoin is extremely undervalued.”
“@Not_Z_Man @BlockHorizonIO Refitted right after the halving in 2024. Original model was fitted in March 2019. This 2024 refit used 5 years of new out-of-sample data. I will do a new refit after 2028 halving. https://t.co/YFjk8BJXwM”
“BTC $87K is now sitting above every major realized price: • Realized price: $53K • 155-day realized: $72K • 2-year realized: $86K A drop below $53K this cycle is off the table IMO. The “must retest realized price like every prior bear” thesis just lost its last clean setup. https://t.co/CoyyEcj9eY”
“Last time you’ll see Bitcoin under $100k? Look at the October column. Uptober is loading.🎃📈 https://t.co/ltCDf9TaXD”