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@AltcoinSherpa · Not Financial Advice / Crypto since 2016/ DYOR https://t.co/2tk69SLmJY https://t.co/R4qO2qt1o9 Betting with @rainbetcom
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 22 Oct 2026
Caller Score
43
Top 57% · #13 of 22 ranked
Scored calls
360
9 pending · 46 unresolved
Hit rate
47.3%
169 correct / 188 incorrect · 3 neutral
Avg return / call
+0.55%
Avg return per call (each call's stated horizon)
Following every call
+198.8%
Equal stake on all 360 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
+0.30%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (58) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 11% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 46.9% | 45 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −334.5% | 9 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +0.30% | 73 | 25% |
By month resolved · Stated horizon
706 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“$BTC this area was always a very very obvious bounce spot but there are a lot of bigger factors at play here other than TA imo. Mostly Saylor and what's going on in macro land + more war stuff...any of those things go against us and I think we leg down. But TA wise alone, this area should be a support area”
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| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 100.0% |
94 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.02 | 61 | 25% |
All time · stated
“Here are some examples from some of the recent $BTC bottoms in 2026, 2025, 2024. And this isn't even talking about CYCLE bottoms like we saw in 2018, 2020, 2022. I'm looking for some sort of big liquidation event...this slow grinding price action is not encouraging to me. https://t.co/hZqm4fo9S7 https://t.co/6ZAfvrcUoc”
“$BLIFE I present to you the strongest coin on the market...binance life. Total cabal coin that hasn't gone up or down in a bit. Prob going to leg up eventually https://t.co/20z4Oe4CaF”
“omw back home and have had very little sleep due to being on the plane + market volatility. I bought some $WLD around $0.50-$0.51 but nothing huge size...it was just 1 of the coins that held up the best. If BTC actually does have a bounce like I am expecting, there are going to be solid bounces across the board. This is going to cause us all to say 'we're so back!!!' but I'm prob going to be selling my entry or taking most off. Best to keep trades pretty quick IMO. We're still in an environment where it could all just go to 55k very quickly if we lose this level.”
“btc is a cunt hair from breaking down here...how is this holding up.”
“$BTC if this level gets lost we're looking at low/mid 50ks IMO. This is a really key area though...PoC from the price action since 2023 and the majority of the run up. 200W EMA too. Really hopeful that this region is still the local bottom. https://t.co/bZfYAEEBQg”
“Probably not going to be knife catching right now; I think I'd rather just buy everything higher. Even if I think btc has a bounce soon(ish), it's hard to tell what happens to altcoins. I DO think that there's going to be a market wide bounce in the next 1-3 days and we're going to say 'we're so back' and then after that, probably more chop. Best to lower size, be patient on entries, and keep trade durations shorter”
“@crypto_condom I agree with all of this. Short term views only and all of it craters if btc legs down”
“I still think a BTC bounce is coming https://t.co/1Dw0G7VKud”
“Kind of a weird spot where some alts have been really strong lately and dips are for buying but btc still looks really iffy”
“I've been the opposite of locked in right now and pretty afk BUT any fool can see that the market is clearly shaky and uneasy right now. BTC puking with the way it is sucks and all of your trades should be fairly short right now IMO (already roundtripped a bunch of moves myself for leaving positions open too long). There are a few coins like ZEC that are holding up and as a whole, altcoins haven't gotten completely destroyed like you would expect since btc went from 80k->63k in 3 weeks. But I think everyone's much more cautious given where btc is at currently- if we lose this 60k level on HTFs, I think we probably wick to something like 50k in 1 go or something nasty. I was of the opinion that 60k was the bottom but I'm open to changing that opinion after seeing this price action. Look at the price action in summer 2024, it was much more choppy and controlled and didn't have these big red daily candles as much. That's more the price action that would have given me confidence that this range IS the bottom. As of now, still unsure, but looks like 60k should get tapped eventually. But I still dont like shorting the current area. I think that a bounce should come between now and 60k. How strong of one, I don't have a clue. But there should be some temporary relief. But for now, stick to winning coins (ZEC, HYPE), keep active trades short (take the 5% moves if the market gives), and keep stop losses tight/don't let things get out of control.”
“$BTC yeah this looks like dogshit but I think there should be a bounce soon? Looks horrific though on lower time frames. If there's a wick somewhere, that should be the local bottom but unsure until I see some capitulation https://t.co/HYfOVbeAQP”
“$BTC it's important to remember that this area is a strong support region back from 2024 and I still suspect this to hold for now. Price did not materially move from this region (we didn't see a 60k->100k move) and I still expect this area to be the relative bottom. I think we chop around here for several more weeks in this area (we still could see 60kish again but don't expect any dramatic high time frame closes below there).”
“$BTC alright 200W EMA tapped here + 65k is a super interesting area...I think a bounce is coming somewhat soon. https://t.co/2r20OOyeDP”
“$MEGA is 1 of the saddest charts I've seen...if this isn't an example that any new big infra project is dead on arrival, I don't know what is. This one had tons of hype and did everything pretty well pre TGE IMO. There's just 0 demand for anything like this right now. Hoping that they can turn it all around though and I do recognize it's a bear for most crypto projects”