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@CryptoHayes · Arthur Hayes, CEO of @Flop_Labs & CIO @Maelstromfund
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
—
Low sample: 7 more calls to rank
Scored calls
8
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
33.3%
2 correct / 4 incorrect · 2 neutral
Avg 30d return / call
-12.01%
Avg return per call (30 day horizon)
Following every call
-96.1%
Equal stake on all 8 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
-11.63%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (21) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 0% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 39.6% | 24 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −167.1% | 42 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -11.63% | 12 | 25% |
By month resolved · 30 days horizon
0 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
No predictions with this status
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 30.4% |
24 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.36 | 12 | 25% |
All time · 30d