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@CryptoHayes · Arthur Hayes, CEO of @Flop_Labs & CIO @Maelstromfund
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
—
Low sample: 11 more calls to rank
Scored calls
4
0 pending · 0 unresolved
Hit rate
50.0%
1 correct / 1 incorrect · 2 neutral
Avg 4h return / call
-0.40%
Avg return per call (4 hour horizon)
Following every call
-1.6%
Equal stake on all 4 calls resolved in the last 90 days
Mean alpha
-0.64%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (37) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 0% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 42.2% | 47 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −2.2% | 56 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -0.64% | 44 | 25% |
By month resolved · 4 hours horizon
Not enough history in this window for a trend.
90 days · 4h
2 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“Is AI finally going to dump? IDK but I wouldn’t bet either way. Instead just trade the eventual multi-trillion dollar bail out. Long $BTC $ETH … https://t.co/RN3ghAyOxW”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 23.1% |
13 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.58 | 25 | 25% |
“Is AI finally going to dump? IDK but I wouldn’t bet either way. Instead just trade the eventual multi-trillion dollar bail out. Long $BTC $ETH … https://t.co/RN3ghAyOxW”