@CryptoMichNL · CIO & Founder @MNFund_ and @MNCapital_vc | Host of @new_era_finance | Macro-Economics, Value Based Investing & Trading | Crypto & Bitcoin Enthusiast
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 22 Oct 2026
Caller Score
57
Top 43% · #10 of 22 ranked
Scored calls
402
0 pending · 16 unresolved
Hit rate
48.9%
195 correct / 204 incorrect · 3 neutral
Avg 4h return / call
+0.06%
Avg return per call (4 hour horizon)
Following every call
+22.6%
Equal stake on all 402 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
+0.08%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (50) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 28% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 48.5% | 33 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −32.5% | 24 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +0.08% | 52 | 25% |
By month resolved · 4 hours horizon
1077 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“@btc_charlie In the meantime: also making a bullish divergence here due to this deviation beneath the lows. Great times.”
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| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 100.0% |
100 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.07 | 48 | 25% |
All time · 4h
“@JorgeMedina2037 Yes, I'm also looking to deploy capital into $MSTR. Similarly with $STRC, the risk is relatively high, but aren't the rewards similar to that? For sure someone will step in and find a way to buy it, as essentially saying that it continues to fall is saying: #Bitcoin dies.”
“I've been using many tools over the past few months, and to be honest: they aren't much better than the previous ones. One thing is clear: AI will change our lives. Massively. However, in the short-term, we're living in a bubble and the marginal extra impact of any update on any LLM right now doesn't yield the actual value. I think that we'll see money flow out of the AI sector and that this liquidity will seek for other markets to invest in --> #Bitcoin and crypto.”
“@QuintenFrancois The timeline was also convinced we were going lower during all of the previous bear market bottoms. :)”
“There's a general consensus that #Altcoins are completely dead. We're seeing 'economists' talking about the fact that #Bitcoin should be worth zero. That's ideally the best period to be accumulating those and to be investing into these. If everyone praises Bitcoin, that's the period to be getting out of your positions.”
“The markets have seen a record outflow on the ETFs in #Bitcoin last week. There's been a record amount of liquidations. The fear surrounding $STRC has reached an enormous peak. Price is still not lower than the crash in February, it's holding $60K. That's a strong signal.”
“Nobody believes in altcoins anymore. That's exactly why I'm fully allocated into them. My altcoin portfolio is still down 50%. It was down 75%. Two things pulled it back: DCA'ing in every month, and actively trading between positions instead of sitting still. I'm not at break-even yet. But the setup I'm looking at now is different from every update I've done this year. Here's the thesis: The Bitcoin-to-gold chart peaked at the end of 2024, right before Trump took office. Every prior bear market in that ratio ran 50 to 60 weeks. We've now passed that — and we've been trending up since. The RSI hit its lowest read in two months, matching previous cycle bottoms. The signal is identical to where past bear markets ended. On the macro side, the factors that drove inflation are rolling over. Oil down 30% since March. A new Fed chair who wants to look at real-time data instead of stale forward guidance. The setup points to lower inflation, rising liquidity — short dollar, long hard assets, bearish oil. That's the regime crypto wakes up in. I'm not saying we can't see another dip. We might still bottom in October. But if your view is Bitcoin goes to half a million, the difference between buying at 40K and 60K is noise. What matters is being positioned before the rotation, not after. That's why I stay fully allocated. Not because it feels good — it doesn't. Because the signal says the back half of this bear market is where positions get built. Full breakdown on my channel. Are you accumulating here, or waiting for it to feel safe?”
“Anything beneath the $1,800 level on $ETH is: - A massive opportunity - Not really attractive on daytrading purposes. This chart respresents it beautifully, as it showcases that we're currently in a clear downtrend on the chart. However, It's making a potential strong bullish divergence on many levels and that would indicate that $ETH is going to follow Bitcoin. That wouldn't be a wonder, right? The Clarity Act approval is around the corner, and this entire event is being used as a negative instrument for the markets to continue to fall. A typical 'sell the rumor, buy the news' type of price action that we're seeing here. Other than that, sweeping the following levels would be a tremendous buying opportunity in my perspective: - Below $1,505 - Below $1,385 I don't think the markets are eager to go down more and I doubt we'll see these levels ($AAVE and other protocols are already taking of). I much rather see a clear breakthrough at $1,800 and see these levels as strong opportunities to be accumulating more positions.”
“Statistically, if the bottom is reached here, and the heaviness of this impact, we'll see a new ATH in <12 months after that. Would align with your thesis, and I don't think it's a strange occurrence if this happens as the correlations with the equity markets and the M2 supply should pick up.”
“@KongBTC It still fits. However, there's an outlier taking place with the entire $STRC saga. If that settles, it probably resumes to correlate again and could bounce back relatively strong.”
“@KongBTC It still fits. However, there's an outlier taking place with the entire $STRC saga. If that settles, it probably resumes to correlate again and could bounce back relatively strong.”
“@StockmoneyL This would be fascinating if this happens. Would only argue that, if $60,000 holds on #Bitcoin, that this structure moves faster than 12 months sideways. But we'll see.”
“I think that we're going to see more strength from the enitre $SOL ecosystem. I look at the BTC pairs to see whether there's strength within the entire industry. Technically; I think that we're going to see a strong upwards trend. ➡️ It has made a higher low. ➡️ It has made a breakout above the 21-Day MA. ➡️ It has made a higher high. That means that it's currently in buy the dip modus until proven otherwise and that would mean that we're seeing $SOL trade above $100 soon. My bet within Solana? I'm betting on $W, as I think that it's a higher beta play in the markets. Doesn't mean that I'll hold it endlessly, but my expectations are positive.”
“Nothing happened on the markets today for $BTC. Still acting around $60K, and that means: under the 200-Week MA. $STRC is trading at $75 and didn't have a massive continuation of a drop. $MSTR continues the freefall and has the lowest RSI read since the crash of Luna '22. To be honest, I think it's quite resilient that Bitcoin holds here. It would be great to see Bitcoin reclaim the levels over the coming days.”
“@QuintenFrancois It's the best time to buy, especially if $STRC jumps back on coming weeks or fades away. I don't think we'll get many of these opportunities in the future anymore.”