@CryptoMichNL · CIO & Founder @MNFund_ and @MNCapital_vc | Host of @new_era_finance | Macro-Economics, Value Based Investing & Trading | Crypto & Bitcoin Enthusiast
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 22 Oct 2026
Caller Score
57
Top 43% · #10 of 22 ranked
Scored calls
402
0 pending · 16 unresolved
Hit rate
48.9%
195 correct / 204 incorrect · 3 neutral
Avg 4h return / call
+0.06%
Avg return per call (4 hour horizon)
Following every call
+22.6%
Equal stake on all 402 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
+0.08%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (50) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 28% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 48.5% | 33 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −32.5% | 24 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | +0.08% | 52 | 25% |
By month resolved · 4 hours horizon
1077 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“Many onchain indicators are signalling what we clearly want to see at these ranges: A bottoming formation on $BTC. Yes, we can still consolidate here for months, or the markets can go deeper. But don't forget: the markets have already gone sideways from $60K for almost five months. That's a pretty long period of consolidation and if this current correction doesn't go deeper, there's no clear argument to say that the bottom isn't here.”
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| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 100.0% |
97 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | 0.07 | 48 | 25% |
All time · 4h
“My thesis is: If #Bitcoin holds the 200-Week MA and refuses to drop deeper, there's clearly not enough sell pressure despite: - Iran war - STRC Michael Saylor doomposting about FTX - Outflows of the ETF - Macroeconomic inflationary topics and no rate cuts That's the sign that we're done already, and overall, the fact that many #Altcoins are showing resilience for the past month is a great sign in the first place.”
“It’s not going to happen that $STRC falls this cycle, as then $BTC needs to go to $10K. Coming week $STRC should go back to par or close to it and markets come back up. https://t.co/hIflydmEs8”
“It’s not going to happen that $STRC falls this cycle, as then $BTC needs to go to $10K. Coming week $STRC should go back to par or close to it and markets come back up. https://t.co/hIflydmEs8”
“Very pleased to see a short bounce upwards on the markets. Overall, I do expect to see a lot more momentum still on $BTC. It needs to hold the 200-Week MA, and then we're good, as that should be the bottom. Despite the fact that everyone is shouting for $40K to come. https://t.co/o5GFND3Xgx”
“We've seen a nice bounce happening just before the markets closed in the United States on Thursday. Probably we'll see a weekend where all crypto assets are going risk-off as people are feared about the potential unfolding of $STRC and $SATA on Monday. As long as Bitcoin holds the 200-Week MA and continues to hold over the coming week, while $STRC and $SATA bounce back more, we'll be in good waters and are in the bottoming phase.”
“We've seen a nice bounce happening just before the markets closed in the United States on Thursday. Probably we'll see a weekend where all crypto assets are going risk-off as people are feared about the potential unfolding of $STRC and $SATA on Monday. As long as Bitcoin holds the 200-Week MA and continues to hold over the coming week, while $STRC and $SATA bounce back more, we'll be in good waters and are in the bottoming phase.”
“Over the course of the past months, the sentiment surrounding the #Altcoin markets has already shifted. The only difference: Bitcoin continues to fall down due to the STRC saga. If that stabilizes, my entire thesis remains that we'll see more liquidity flow into the altcoin markets. The BTC Dominance chart is on edge of breaking down, which is in parity with the fact that Ethereum has bounced on a higher timeframe support level.”
“The current market capitalization of $MSTR: $40B The current $BTC reserve they hold: $53B Essentially, it's trading at a discount of 24% at current market valuations. Similarly with Bitmine, it's traded at a 10% discount vs. the $ETH Treasury. The highest discount vs. the BTC reserve ever recorded. If you're bullish on #Bitcoin, then there's no way not to be bullish on MSTR and it's a phenomenal entry point for either $STRC, $BTC, $MSTR or $ETH.”
“The current market capitalization of $MSTR: $40B The current $BTC reserve they hold: $53B Essentially, it's trading at a discount of 24% at current market valuations. Similarly with Bitmine, it's traded at a 10% discount vs. the $ETH Treasury. The highest discount vs. the BTC reserve ever recorded. If you're bullish on #Bitcoin, then there's no way not to be bullish on MSTR and it's a phenomenal entry point for either $STRC, $BTC, $MSTR or $ETH.”
“"Bitcoin is oversold. It's been artificially lumped in with software stocks for no good reason." Lyn Alden (@LynAldenContact) on why the crash hit Bitcoin harder than it should have: "The washout from the Treasury company mNAVs was painful. The quantum FUD had to be explored. The four-year cycle had to be tested. But I think the majority of the pain is behind us." "Gold went from undervalued to fairly valued fast, the market rightsized it. It's not a bubble, but it's somewhat euphoric right now." "Sentiment on Bitcoin is unfairly negative, to say the least." "Gun to my head, if I had to bet Bitcoin or gold over the next two to three years, I'd bet Bitcoin. I own both. I've always owned both. But if I had to pick, it's Bitcoin." Translation: the crash lumped Bitcoin in with the AI software selloff it has nothing to do with. Gold ran its move and is now near fair value. Bitcoin got sold on sentiment, not fundamentals, which is exactly the setup that reverses when risk appetite returns.”
“$ETH vs. $BTC remains unchanged. We still need to see whether or not the trend is changing from here, but overall, it's holding a crucial level for support. Since the rejection at 0.03250, this was my area for potential support tests, so I'm definitely interested to be buying into the $ETH ecosystem here with the Clarity Act coming up.”
“#Bitcoin rejects at the levels at $66K and it's bank holiday. The ideal scenario for some great fuckeries on the markets over the weekend, as STRC has bounced up slightly before the markets closed last night. I wouldn't be surprised to see a test of the lows happening here with a clear bullish divergence being built up, and reverse after that. It's still not far, especially not since the 200-Week MA is currently just beneath us (and expect for 2022) and has provided the market bottom in any cycle.”
“Big test today on everything in #Bitcoin, not due to the fundamentals of Bitcoin, but due to some financial products designed to generate more income through Bitcoin. Fundamentals never changed. On the entire markets they didn't. If $SATA and $STRC bounce more tomorrow, then there's clearly no reason why Bitcoin should trade higher going forward from here.”
“This market move isn't comparable to FTX or Luna. It's a leveraged event, and the market overvalues the impact of $STRC onto the markets of #Bitcoin. Aside from that, there's no clear reason why Bitcoin should continue to fall in the broader market sense. The correlation between STRC and BTC is evident. This is the first time that STRC crashes, hits the 13.9% yield mark of SATA and Bitcoin doesn't make a new low (yet). Fabulous read of Jesse, must-read for anyone interested in this topic.”