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@Excellion · Working on nation-state #Bitcoin adoption. CEO @JAN3com, building @AquaBitcoin, CEO @Pixelmatic & creator of @InfiniteFleet. Might be in HBO's #MoneyElectric.
Coverage 15 Apr 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
Caller Score
21
Top 79% · #17 of 21 ranked
Scored calls
21
5 pending · 2 unresolved
Hit rate
41.7%
5 correct / 7 incorrect · 9 neutral
Avg 30d return / call
-2.13%
Avg return per call (30 day horizon)
Following every call
-44.6%
Equal stake on all 21 calls resolved so far
Mean alpha
-1.24%
Return minus the same bet on BTC (BTC calls vs cash)
Each component is shrunk toward the cohort mean by sample size (k = 20) and ranked as a percentile among callers in this view; the weighted blend (31) orders the cohort, and the Caller Score is the position in it. 5% of these calls stated a timeframe.
| Component | Value | Percentile | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hit rateShare of directional calls that were right (neutral moves excluded) | 47.2% | 21 | 20% |
| Follow-the-calls drawdownWorst peak-to-trough of taking every call at equal stake (lower is better) | −97.0% | 70 | 15% |
| Mean alphaAverage return minus the same bet on BTC over the same period | -1.24% | 18 | 25% |
By month resolved · 30 days horizon
2 records · every scored call links to its source post and price evidence
“When $STRC returns to par and you held for a year, you’d make 51.6% return from effective yield + pull-to-par capital gains. Probably more as Strategy will likely increase the dividend as per guidance. https://t.co/K5yQrCVRDC”
| ConsistencyShare of the window's weeks (days for short windows) with a scored call |
| 60.9% |
55 |
| 15% |
| Risk-adjusted returnMean alpha divided by the volatility of the assets called | -0.11 | 15 | 25% |
All time · 30d
“I'd be surprised if it took more than a few weeks for $STRC to get to par again.”